SMART Indicator Report: Sea-surface temperature anomaly

1 Indicator category

[Fill by hand, needs decision by Council]

2 Indicator name

Sea-surface temperature anomaly

Includes variable(s): Fall, Spring, Summer, Winter

3 Indicator brief description

Seasonal sea surface temperature anomaly

4 Indicator visualization

Since 1982, SST has been increasing in all seasons in all three EPUs. 2023 was the warmest winter SST in the GOM and GB on record. All record warmest seasonal SST years have occurred on or after 2012. 2023 also saw relatively cooler summer temperatures in GB and the GOM and fall temperatures in all regions.

5 Indicator documentation

5.1 Are indicators available for others to use (data downloadable)?

## Yes

5.1.1 Where can indicators be found?

## Data: https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/index.html 
## Description:  https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/seasonal_oisst_anom.html 
## Technical documentation:  https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/seasonal_oisst_anom.html

5.1.2 How often are they updated? Are future updates likely?

[need sequential look at datasets for update frequency. Future requires judgement]

5.1.3 Who is the contact?

brandon.beltz@noaa.gov

5.2 Gather indicator statistics

5.2.1 Units

## no Units field

5.2.2 Length of time series, start and end date, periodicity

General overview: Seasonal: Winter (January - March), Spring (April - June), Summer (July - September), Fall (October - December)

Indicator specifics:

Indicator	EPU	StartYear	EndYear	NumYears	MissingYears
Fall	GB	1982	2023	42	0
Fall	GOM	1982	2023	42	0
Fall	MAB	1982	2023	42	0
Spring	GB	1982	2024	43	0
Spring	GOM	1982	2024	43	0
Spring	MAB	1982	2024	43	0
Summer	GB	1982	2024	43	0
Summer	GOM	1982	2024	43	0
Summer	MAB	1982	2024	43	0
Winter	GB	1982	2024	43	0
Winter	GOM	1982	2024	43	0
Winter	MAB	1982	2024	43	0

5.2.3 Spatial location, scale and extent

General overview: EPU

Indicator specifics:

Indicator	EPU
Fall	GB
Fall	GOM
Fall	MAB
Spring	GB
Spring	GOM
Spring	MAB
Summer	GB
Summer	GOM
Summer	MAB
Winter	GB
Winter	GOM
Winter	MAB

5.2.4 Management scale: all species, FMP level, species level, can it be aggregated or separated to different scales?

[Classify by hand, note gridded data if available could be applied to different species ranges]

5.2.5 Uncertainty metrics

5.3 Are methods clearly documented to obtain source data and calculate indicators?

## Yes

5.3.1 Can the indicator be calculated from current documentation?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.3.2 Is code publicly available? up to date?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.3.3 Have methods changed over time?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.4 Are indicator underlying source data linked or easy to find?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgements]

5.4.1 Where are source data stored?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

5.4.2 How/by whom are source data updated? Are future updates likely?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

5.4.3 How often are they updated?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

6 Indicator analysis/testing or history of use

6.1 What decision or advice processes are the indicators currently used in?

Sea surface temperature can be used as a proxy for overall thermal conditions in the system. Data for sea surface anomalies were derived from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration optimum interpolation sea surface temperature high resolution data set (NOAA OISST V2). Mean seasonal-annual SST was calculated for each EPU. These data extend from 1981 to present. Anomalies are calculated by subtracting the long-term mean temperature from 1990-2010 for each season, from the seasonal-annual mean SST.

6.2 What implications of the indicators are currently listed?

Sea surface temperature is an indicator of thermal habitat for pelagic species. Long-term warming trends suggest wide-spread environmental change in the system. Warming trends can have potential impacts on species spatial distributions, the seasonal timing of species life history events, and the overall productivity of the system.

6.3 Do target, limit, or threshold values already exist for the indicator?

[Fill by hand; if not in key results or implications, likely does not exist]

6.4 Have the indicators been tested to ensure they respond proportionally to a change in the underlying process?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

6.5 Are the indicators sensitive to a small change in the process, or what is the threshold of change that is detectable?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

6.6 Is there a time lag between the process change and the indicator change? How long?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

7 Comments

[Fill below by hand once above data complete]

7.1 Additional potential links to management in addition to uses listed above

7.2 What additional work would be needed for the Council to use the indicator?

7.3 What issues are caused if there is a gap or delay in data underlying the indicator