1 Descriptive Section

1.1 Indicator category

Habitat-Physical

1.2 Indicator name

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Includes variable(s): ALL

1.3 Indicator brief description

The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) generally tracks sea level air pressure differences between Iceland and the Azores in the North Atlantic. The indicator focuses on annual changes in winter NAO by averaging monthly NAO indices for January, February, and March each year.

1.4 Indicator visualization

The NAO has oscillated since 1950 between negative (higher pressure over Iceland) and positive (higher pressure over the Azores) phases at 20-30 year intervals. It has been in a positive phase since 2014.

2 SMART Attribute Section

2.1 Indicator documentation

2.1.1 Are indicators available for others to use (data downloadable)?

Yes

2.1.1.1 Where can indicators be found?

All marea indicators are here: https://github.com/MarEcosystemApproaches/marea

2.1.1.2 How often are they updated? Are future updates likely?

Unknown

2.1.1.3 Who is the contact?

Jamie C. Tam

2.1.2 Gather indicator statistics

2.1.2.1 Units

Indicator

Units

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

2.1.2.2 Length of time series, start and end date, periodicity

General overview: Annual

Indicator specifics:

Indicator

EPU

StartYear

EndYear

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

North Atlantic

1951

2024

2.1.2.3 Spatial location, scale and extent

General overview: Azores–Iceland SLP difference

Indicator specifics:

Indicator

EPU

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

North Atlantic

2.1.2.4 Management scale: all species, FMP level, species level, can it be aggregated or separated to different scales?

Basinwide scale applying to the entire North Atlantic; cannot be aggregated or separated.

2.1.2.5 Uncertainty metrics

Uncertainty is captured in these variables:

character(0)

2.1.3 Are methods clearly documented to obtain source data and calculate indicators?

No methods documentation is provided

2.1.3.1 Can the indicator be calculated from current documentation?

No. No methods documentation is provided

2.1.3.2 Is code publicly available? up to date?

No. No link to code in metadata

2.1.3.3 Have methods changed over time?

Yes, there are multiple methods to calculate the index ranging from observed pressure differences between stations and advanced statistical analyses of high resolution spatial pressure data, and over different time periods. The index based on principal components analysis is described here https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-pc-based based on stations is described here https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-station-based and for a comparison of all methods see https://web.archive.org/web/20100328165609/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.html

2.1.4 Are indicator underlying source data linked or easy to find?

Yes. Source information included: NOAA NCEP via azmpdata; https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/nao/

2.1.4.1 Where are source data stored?

Source data stored at NOAA NCEP via azmpdata; https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/nao/

2.1.4.2 How/by whom are source data updated? Are future updates likely?

No. No source data steward information

2.1.4.3 How often are they updated?

Annually, once the desired 3 winter months have been averaged, although daily estimates are available.

2.2 Indicator analysis/testing or history of use

2.2.1 What decision or advice processes are the indicators currently used in?

None known

2.2.2 What implications of the indicators are currently listed?

The positive phase of the NAO generally means stronger westerly winds at mid-latitudes, higher intensity North Atlantic storms, and warmer weather in the Eastern US and Northern Europe but cooler temperatures in Greenland. See https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/nao/

2.2.3 Do target, limit, or threshold values already exist for the indicator?

No.

2.2.4 Have the indicators been tested to ensure they respond proportionally to a change in the underlying process?

Yes, the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center routinely compares observed daily NAO indices with forecast NAO indices. See https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.ensm.diff.shtml

2.2.5 Are the indicators sensitive to a small change in the process, or what is the threshold of change that is detectable?

Unknown

2.2.6 Is there a time lag between the process change and the indicator change? How long?

Unknown

3 SMART rating

Category

Indicator

Element

Attribute

Rating

ElementRating

OverallRating

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Specific

Described

1.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Specific

Units

0.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Specific

Spatial

1.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Specific

Uncertainty

0.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Specific

Methods

0.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Specific

Code

0.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Measurable

Available

1.0

0.8333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Measurable

Online

1.0

0.8333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Measurable

Contact

1.0

0.8333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Measurable

SourceDat

1.0

0.8333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Measurable

SourceAvail

1.0

0.8333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Measurable

SourceContact

0.0

0.8333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Achievable

Tested

1.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Achievable

Sensitivity

0.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Achievable

TimeLag

0.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Relevant

Advice

0.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Relevant

Implications

1.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Relevant

TargThresh

0.0

0.3333333

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Timebound

Frequency

1.0

0.7500000

0.5166667

Habitat-Physical

North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Timebound

Updated

0.5

0.7500000

0.5166667

3.1 Comments

3.1.2 What additional work would be needed for the Council to use the indicator?

[List current gaps in the indicator given the current or potentail uses listed above, what resources are needed?]

3.1.3 What issues are caused if there is a gap or delay in data underlying the indicator

[Link to management process/actions and their requirements]