1 Indicator category

[Fill by hand, needs decision by Council]

2 Indicator name

Gray Seal Bycatch

Includes variable(s): pbr, total5yLCI, total5yUCI, totalest1y, totalest5y

3 Indicator brief description

The data presented here are time series of the species specific estimates of bycatch from U.S. North Atlantic commercial fisheries.

4 Indicator visualization

For gray seals, the total estimated annual bycatch and 5-year rolling mean with 95% confidence intervals from U.S. North Atlantic commercial fisheries is shown by year (Fig. x). Gear types include bottom gillnets, bottom trawls, midwater trawls, and pair trawls. The Potential Biological Removal (PBR) for the US portion of the stock is indicated by the red reference line. The 5-year mean estimates of bycatch increased from 2000 to around 2012, decreased to 2016, and then trended upward between 2016 and 2021 before declining slightly in 2022. While the 5-year mean has remained below the PBR level, and thus meets management objectives, the annual estimate of bycatch exceeded PBR in 2019. Bycatch levels, therefore, may exceed conservation targets in single years due to inter-annual variability.

5 Indicator documentation

5.1 Are indicators available for others to use (data downloadable)?

## Yes

5.1.1 Where can indicators be found?

## Data: https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/index.html 
## Description:  https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/grayseal.html 
## Technical documentation:  https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/grayseal.html

5.1.2 How often are they updated? Are future updates likely?

[need sequential look at datasets for update frequency. Future requires judgement]

5.1.3 Who is the contact?

Kimberly Murray (); Kristin Precoda ()

5.2 Gather indicator statistics

5.2.1 Units

## no Units field

5.2.2 Length of time series, start and end date, periodicity

General overview: Annual from 1990 to 2022.

Indicator specifics:

Indicator

EPU

StartYear

EndYear

NumYears

MissingYears

pbr

All

1996

2021

10

16

total5yLCI

All

2000

2022

23

0

total5yUCI

All

2000

2022

23

0

totalest1y

All

1996

2022

26

1

totalest5y

All

2000

2022

23

0

5.2.3 Spatial location, scale and extent

General overview: Spatial scale: US waters from North Carolina to Canada from the U.S. coastline to the U.S. exclusive economic zone 200 nautical miles offshore, thus including all EPUs, the full shelf and beyond.

Indicator specifics:

Indicator

EPU

pbr

All

total5yLCI

All

total5yUCI

All

totalest1y

All

totalest5y

All

5.2.4 Management scale: all species, FMP level, species level, can it be aggregated or separated to different scales?

[Classify by hand, note gridded data if available could be applied to different species ranges]

5.2.5 Uncertainty metrics

5.3 Are methods clearly documented to obtain source data and calculate indicators?

## Yes

5.3.1 Can the indicator be calculated from current documentation?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.3.2 Is code publicly available? up to date?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.3.3 Have methods changed over time?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.4 Are indicator underlying source data linked or easy to find?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgements]

5.4.1 Where are source data stored?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

5.4.2 How/by whom are source data updated? Are future updates likely?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

5.4.3 How often are they updated?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

6 Indicator analysis/testing or history of use

6.1 What decision or advice processes are the indicators currently used in?

Gray seals, like all marine mammals, are protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). The goal of the MMPA is to obtain and maintain optimum sustainable populations (OSP) of marine mammals, because they were recognized as significant functioning elements of marine ecosystems. To help prevent populations from falling below their OSP levels, managers set limits on the level of incidental mortality and serious injury occurring in commercial fisheries, and also monitor unusual mortality events (UMEs). Here we report on levels of gray seal incidental mortality in commercial fisheries over time relative to the limits set on this mortality, otherwise known as the Potential Biological Removal (PBR) level. We also report on the potential for future interactions driven by observed and predicted ecosystem changes in the Northeast US in other areas of this document.

6.2 What implications of the indicators are currently listed?

Under the MMPA, if bycatch exceeds PBR levels, Take Reduction Teams may be convened to develop plans to reduce incidental mortality and serious injury from commercial fishing to less than the PBR level. While gray seal bycatch exceeded the PBR level for the US portion of the stock in 2019, the 5-year mean level of bycatch has remained below PBR and the stock is not considered strategic.

6.3 Do target, limit, or threshold values already exist for the indicator?

[Fill by hand; if not in key results or implications, likely does not exist]

6.4 Have the indicators been tested to ensure they respond proportionally to a change in the underlying process?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

6.5 Are the indicators sensitive to a small change in the process, or what is the threshold of change that is detectable?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

6.6 Is there a time lag between the process change and the indicator change? How long?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

7 Comments

[Fill below by hand once above data complete]

7.2 What additional work would be needed for the Council to use the indicator?

7.3 What issues are caused if there is a gap or delay in data underlying the indicator