SMART Indicator Report: Bottom temperature - Seasonal Anomaly

1 Indicator category

[Fill by hand, needs decision by Council]

2 Indicator name

Bottom temperature - Seasonal Anomaly

Includes variable(s): Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS, Annual_Bottom Temp MOM6, Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS, Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS, Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6, Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS, Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS, Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6, Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS, Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS, Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6, Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS, Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS, Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6, Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS

3 Indicator brief description

The data presented here are seasonal bottom temperature anomalies. This includes seasonal bottom temperature anomalies by each EPU on the Northeast Continental Shelf from observation-based bottom temperature sources as well as the MOM6 ocean model.

4 Indicator visualization

GLORYS, ROMS and PSY Time series plots for seasonal bottom temperature anomaly for each EPU shows a long-term warming trend. PSY forecasted data also included for comparison and indicates varying skill in predicting regional bottom temperature. MOM6 Here we show the seasonal temperature anomalies in the Mid Atlantic Bight (MAB), Georges Bank (GB) and Gulf of Maine (GOM) EPUs. Data from 1959 through 1992 are from the biased corrected ROMS dataset ([71]). Data from 1993 through 2019 are from MOM6 ([72]), and 1993 through 2023 are from GLORYS12 reanalysis ([73]). For the anomaly plots the climatology period is 1990 through 2020. The MOM6 model hindcast does a good job at reproducing seasonal bottom temperature anomalies calculated from GLORYS12 reanalysis data. Because the 1959 through 1992 ROMS was biased corrected using the GLORYS12 dataset, calculating seasonal climatologies using primarily MOM6 data introduces a new, different bias. The differing ability of the model to accurately reproduce bottom temperature during different seasons also likely contributes to the discrepancies between the two time series in the annual bottom temperature plots.

5 Indicator documentation

5.1 Are indicators available for others to use (data downloadable)?

## Yes

5.1.1 Where can indicators be found?

## Data: https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/index.html 
## Description:  https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/bottom_temp_model_anom.html 
## Technical documentation:  https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/bottom_temp_model_anom.html

5.1.2 How often are they updated? Are future updates likely?

[need sequential look at datasets for update frequency. Future requires judgement]

5.1.3 Who is the contact?

joseph.caracappa@noaa.gov; laura.gruenburg@noaa.gov

5.2 Gather indicator statistics

5.2.1 Units

Indicator	Units
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	degree C
Annual_Bottom Temp MOM6	degrees C
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	degree C
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	degree C
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	degrees C
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	degree C
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	degree C
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	degrees C
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	degree C
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	degree C
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	degrees C
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	degree C
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	degree C
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	degrees C
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	degree C

5.2.2 Length of time series, start and end date, periodicity

General overview: annual-seasonal

Indicator specifics:

Indicator	EPU	StartYear	EndYear	NumYears	MissingYears
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	GB	1993	2024	32	0
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	GOM	1993	2024	32	0
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	MAB	1993	2024	32	0
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	SS	1993	2024	32	0
Annual_Bottom Temp MOM6	GB	1993	2019	27	0
Annual_Bottom Temp MOM6	GOM	1993	2019	27	0
Annual_Bottom Temp MOM6	MAB	1993	2019	27	0
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	GB	1959	1992	34	0
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	GOM	1959	1992	34	0
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	MAB	1959	1992	34	0
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	SS	1959	1992	34	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GB	1993	2023	31	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GOM	1993	2023	31	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	MAB	1993	2023	31	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	SS	1993	2023	31	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GB	1993	2019	27	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GOM	1993	2019	27	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	MAB	1993	2019	27	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GB	1959	1992	34	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GOM	1959	1992	34	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	MAB	1959	1992	34	0
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	SS	1959	1992	34	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GB	1993	2024	32	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GOM	1993	2024	32	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	MAB	1993	2024	32	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	SS	1993	2024	32	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GB	1993	2019	27	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GOM	1993	2019	27	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	MAB	1993	2019	27	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GB	1959	1992	34	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GOM	1959	1992	34	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	MAB	1959	1992	34	0
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	SS	1959	1992	34	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GB	1993	2024	32	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GOM	1993	2024	32	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	MAB	1993	2024	32	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	SS	1993	2024	32	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GB	1993	2019	27	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GOM	1993	2019	27	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	MAB	1993	2019	27	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GB	1959	1992	34	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GOM	1959	1992	34	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	MAB	1959	1992	34	0
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	SS	1959	1992	34	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GB	1993	2024	32	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GOM	1993	2024	32	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	MAB	1993	2024	32	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	SS	1993	2024	32	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GB	1993	2019	27	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GOM	1993	2019	27	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	MAB	1993	2019	27	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GB	1959	1992	34	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GOM	1959	1992	34	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	MAB	1959	1992	34	0
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	SS	1959	1992	34	0

5.2.3 Spatial location, scale and extent

General overview: EPU

Indicator specifics:

Indicator	EPU
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	GB
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	GOM
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	MAB
Annual_Bottom Temp GLORYS	SS
Annual_Bottom Temp MOM6	GB
Annual_Bottom Temp MOM6	GOM
Annual_Bottom Temp MOM6	MAB
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	GB
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	GOM
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	MAB
Annual_Bottom Temp ROMS	SS
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GB
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GOM
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	MAB
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	SS
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GB
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GOM
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	MAB
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GB
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GOM
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	MAB
Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	SS
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GB
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GOM
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	MAB
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	SS
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GB
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GOM
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	MAB
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GB
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GOM
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	MAB
Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	SS
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GB
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GOM
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	MAB
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	SS
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GB
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GOM
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	MAB
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GB
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GOM
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	MAB
Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	SS
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GB
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	GOM
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	MAB
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly GLORYS	SS
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GB
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	GOM
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly MOM6	MAB
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GB
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	GOM
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	MAB
Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly ROMS	SS

5.2.4 Management scale: all species, FMP level, species level, can it be aggregated or separated to different scales?

[Classify by hand, note gridded data if available could be applied to different species ranges]

5.2.5 Uncertainty metrics

5.3 Are methods clearly documented to obtain source data and calculate indicators?

## Yes

5.3.1 Can the indicator be calculated from current documentation?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.3.2 Is code publicly available? up to date?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.3.3 Have methods changed over time?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for current and previous methods]

5.4 Are indicator underlying source data linked or easy to find?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgements]

5.4.1 Where are source data stored?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

5.4.2 How/by whom are source data updated? Are future updates likely?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

5.4.3 How often are they updated?

[Build link to Tech-doc, look for source, may require judgement]

6 Indicator analysis/testing or history of use

6.1 What decision or advice processes are the indicators currently used in?

The raw bottom temperature product is in a horizontal 1/12 degree grid between 1959 and 2023 and is made of daily bottom temperature estimates from: Bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (ROMScor) between 1959 and 1992 which was regridded in the same 1/12degree grid as GLORYS using bilinear interpolation; GLORYS12v1 in its original 1/12 degree grid between 1993 and 2024-09-10; and PSY in it’s 1/12 degree grid from 2023-08-29 to 2023-12-31. The Modular Ocean Model Version 6 (MOM6) is at roughly 1/12 a degree horizontal resolution with data from 1993-2019 from a hindcast simulation which has no data assimilation. In addition to the hindcast, the model will be run as a seasonal to annual forecast, a decadal forecast, and a centennial projection. Investigating the ability of this model to reproduce key indicators can help us to develop confidence in the model, as well as learn where improvements can be made. Anomalies are calculated using the 1990-2020 reference period.

6.2 What implications of the indicators are currently listed?

Bottom temperature is an important driver for benthic and demersal species growth, metabolism, and reproduction. Changes in seasonal bottom temperature have implications for species’ phenology. Data from ocean models is an important tool that we can use to understand changes to the marine environment. The MOM6 regional model for the Northwest Atlantic hindcast can provide consistent data in space and time where gaps exist in observations. Model data can also be used to forecast future conditions. The ability of MOM6 to reproduce seasonal temperature anomalies in these EPUs increases confidence in the model.

6.3 Do target, limit, or threshold values already exist for the indicator?

[Fill by hand; if not in key results or implications, likely does not exist]

6.4 Have the indicators been tested to ensure they respond proportionally to a change in the underlying process?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

6.5 Are the indicators sensitive to a small change in the process, or what is the threshold of change that is detectable?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

6.6 Is there a time lag between the process change and the indicator change? How long?

[Fill by hand; if not in introduction, key results, or implications, likely not tested]

7 Comments

[Fill below by hand once above data complete]

7.1 Additional potential links to management in addition to uses listed above

7.2 What additional work would be needed for the Council to use the indicator?

7.3 What issues are caused if there is a gap or delay in data underlying the indicator