SMART Indicator Report: Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index

1 Descriptive Section

1.1 Indicator category

Habitat-Physical

Habitat-Physical

1.2 Indicator name

Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index

Includes variable(s): ALL

1.3 Indicator brief description

The AMO is an observed pattern of alternating cool and warm periods of North Atlantic sea surface temperature every 40-60 years.

1.4 Indicator visualization

The indicator oscillates from 1850 to 1975 and then shows a generally increasing trend.

2 SMART Attribute Section

2.1 Indicator documentation

2.1.1 Are indicators available for others to use (data downloadable)?

Yes

2.1.1.1 Where can indicators be found?

All marea indicators are here: https://github.com/MarEcosystemApproaches/marea

2.1.1.2 How often are they updated? Are future updates likely?

Updates appear to be monthly; the future is unknown

2.1.1.3 Who is the contact?

Jamie C. Tam jamie.tam@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

2.1.2 Gather indicator statistics

2.1.2.1 Units

Indicator	Units
Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index

2.1.2.2 Length of time series, start and end date, periodicity

General overview: Annual and Monthly

Indicator specifics:

Indicator	EPU	StartYear	EndYear
Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Northern Hemisphere (0-60N)	1854	2025

2.1.2.3 Spatial location, scale and extent

General overview: North Atlantic

Indicator specifics:

Indicator	EPU
Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Northern Hemisphere (0-60N)

2.1.2.4 Management scale: all species, FMP level, species level, can it be aggregated or separated to different scales?

Basinwide scale applying to the entire North Atlantic; cannot be aggregated or separated.

2.1.2.5 Uncertainty metrics

Uncertainty is captured in these variables:

character(0)

2.1.3 Are methods clearly documented to obtain source data and calculate indicators?

No methods documentation is provided

2.1.3.1 Can the indicator be calculated from current documentation?

No. No methods documentation is provided

2.1.3.2 Is code publicly available? up to date?

No. No link to code in metadata

2.1.3.3 Have methods changed over time?

Unknown

2.1.4 Are indicator underlying source data linked or easy to find?

## Yes. Source information included: NOAA , https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat

2.1.4.1 Where are source data stored?

## Source data stored at NOAA , https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat

2.1.4.2 How/by whom are source data updated? Are future updates likely?

## No. No source data steward information

2.1.4.3 How often are they updated?

Unknown

2.2 Indicator analysis/testing or history of use

2.2.1 What decision or advice processes are the indicators currently used in?

None known

2.2.2 What implications of the indicators are currently listed?

The AMO was originally described as “an internal oscillation in the climate system resulting from interactions between North Atlantic ocean currents and wind patterns.” If it were an internal oscillation, it could theoretically be predicted and therefore potentially useful for forecasting. It is now thought to be “an artifact, during the historical era, of competing anthropogenic (greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling) drivers and, during the pre-historic era, an artifact of the fact that volcanic forcing happens to have displayed a roughly multidecadal pacing in past centuries.” See https://michaelmann.net/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation/

2.2.3 Do target, limit, or threshold values already exist for the indicator?

No.

2.2.4 Have the indicators been tested to ensure they respond proportionally to a change in the underlying process?

Yes, the has been extensively tested using recent climate models to determine whether it is an internal climate system oscillation or not; the current conclusion is that it is not.

2.2.5 Are the indicators sensitive to a small change in the process, or what is the threshold of change that is detectable?

Unknown

2.2.6 Is there a time lag between the process change and the indicator change? How long?

Unknown

3 SMART rating

Category	Indicator	Element	Attribute	Rating	ElementRating	OverallRating
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Specific	Described	1	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Specific	Units	0	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Specific	Spatial	1	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Specific	Uncertainty	0	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Specific	Methods	0	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Specific	Code	0	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Measurable	Available	1	0.8333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Measurable	Online	1	0.8333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Measurable	Contact	1	0.8333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Measurable	SourceDat	1	0.8333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Measurable	SourceAvail	1	0.8333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Measurable	SourceContact	0	0.8333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Achievable	Tested	1	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Achievable	Sensitivity	0	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Achievable	TimeLag	0	0.3333333	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Relevant	Advice	0	0.0000000	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Relevant	Implications	0	0.0000000	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Relevant	TargThresh	0	0.0000000	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Timebound	Frequency	1	1.0000000	0.5
Habitat-Physical	Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Index	Timebound	Updated	1	1.0000000	0.5

3.1 Comments

3.1.1 Additional potential links to management in addition to uses listed above

[Select from list of management processes/actions using exact keywords]

3.1.2 What additional work would be needed for the Council to use the indicator?

[List current gaps in the indicator given the current or potentail uses listed above, what resources are needed?]

3.1.3 What issues are caused if there is a gap or delay in data underlying the indicator

[Link to management process/actions and their requirements]